ICE Brent broke above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, propelled by Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea, President Trump’s statement that he would hold Iran responsible, and the risk of further escalation in the Persian Gulf. Saudi crude exports from Yanbu averaged 4.6m b/d in June, while Kazakh flows through the CPC terminal in Russia are disrupted at rates exceeding 1.7m b/d. Russia is considering extending its diesel export ban beyond July, and ARA gasoil inventories fell to 1.64mt — the lowest since 2022 and 13% below the five-year average.
Three days after this report, oil prices fell as much as 9% to below $88 a barrel following a pause in US strikes and Trump’s mention of “good talks” with Tehran.