The OECD’s latest economic outlook upgraded the UK’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% from the 0.7% predicted in March, while cutting the 2027 forecast to 1.1% from 1.3%, and projected inflation averaging 3.7% in 2026 before easing to 2.4% next year. It warned that rural areas are particularly exposed to diesel shortages if the Iran conflict persists, and that low jet-fuel stocks threaten pharmaceuticals and tourism. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has already intervened to support households facing soaring heating-oil prices, while the Bank of England’s governor signalled tolerance for temporarily above-target inflation, with the OECD forecasting a quarter-point rate cut to 3.5% rather than a hike.