The IMF raised its UK 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 1% in its July World Economic Outlook, a revision driven by diminishing fears over the economic fallout from the Iran war. The US (2.3%) and oil-exporting Canada (1.1%) are projected to grow faster, leaving the UK as the G7’s third fastest-growing economy this year, while the 2027 forecast was left unchanged at 1.3%. The fund cautioned that renewed hostilities could reverse commodity-price gains and that an AI-led tech-cycle correction poses a further downside risk.