The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now gives an 81% chance the event will reach “very strong” status during October–December, with a 97% chance of persisting into early spring 2027, driven by a Niño 3.4 index of +1.2°C and eastern Pacific warming to +2.7°C. Last week the Panama Canal Authority reduced the maximum Neopanamax draft from 49.5 to 49.0 feet (effective July 24) and to 48.5 feet (August 15), citing water management under expected El Niño conditions, though the restrictions remain far less severe than during the 2023–24 drought. The upgraded forecast extends the outlook to the same multi‑year window as the previous analyst warnings that a “super” El Niño could trigger a global food price shock lasting into 2028.
Context
The upgraded forecast extends the outlook to the same multi‑year window as the previous analyst warnings that a “super” El Niño could trigger a global food price shock lasting into 2028.