The OECD’s “prolonged disruption” scenario, assuming no US–Iran agreement until 2027, projects global GDP growth would fall to 2.1% this year from 3.4% in 2025, pushing some economies into or close to recession, with emerging economies hit hardest. Oil and gas shortages would force business rationing and raise prices of fertilisers, sulphur and helium, while rising energy and food prices could put central banks in a bind between recession and inflation. The Paris-based club warns the US AI boom is also at risk, as energy price shocks and shortages would raise datacentre costs and constrain hardware supply, dampening AI investment. An alternative scenario, where peace progress allows oil prices to decline, sees global growth at 2.8% in 2026, picking up to 3.1% in 2027. The OECD also flags that total corporate debt in G20 economies stood at $90tn by Q3 2025, with a quarter maturing in the next three years, which could roll into higher borrowing costs, and notes interconnectedness in the private credit sector creating adverse spillover risks.