‘Super El Niño’ is officially here, scientists say. What can we expect?

The Guardian11 jun 2026Macro
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NOAA announced on Thursday that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have warmed to at least 0.5°C above average, marking the official onset of El Niño. The agency assigns a 63% probability that the event will rank among the largest in the 1950–present record, with a "super" El Niño defined by anomalies of at least 2°C, and expects peak intensity in fall or winter. The formal confirmation follows the UN’s warning of an 80% formation chance by September and the World Meteorological Organization’s later 90% chance by November.

Context

The formal confirmation follows the UN’s warning of an 80% formation chance by September and the World Meteorological Organization’s later 90% chance by November.

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