Surprisingly benign UK inflation data signals a softer Iran war hit than feared

The Guardian17 Jun 2026Macro
Automatically composed with AI from the cited sources

UK consumer price inflation held at 2.8% in May, unchanged from April and below the 3.0% economists had expected, the Office for National Statistics reported. Motor fuel prices surged 25% year-on-year, while food prices edged down 0.1% month-on-month. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is forecast to keep its main rate at 3.75% at its Thursday meeting, and markets now price a first rate rise in November rather than September. The US-Iran peace deal has pushed oil below $80 a barrel, removing the Bank’s worst-case inflation scenario.