Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent at risk of sinking as climate crisis worsens

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The British Geological Survey’s GeoClimate dataset projects that by 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected by shrink-swell subsidence under a low-emissions scenario, rising to over 1.8m under a medium scenario, with more than 26% of properties in London susceptible under that medium scenario. The analysis follows the warmest spring on record in 2025 and £153m in subsidence-related insurance claims in the first half of that year.