On 4 June, India declared the onset of its south-west monsoon in Kerala, three days later than the 1 June average; stations along the western-facing coast recorded up to 280mm of rain in 72 hours to 7 June, and models indicated a further 200–250mm for the region this week under red warnings for extremely heavy rainfall, flash floods and landslides. Thailand’s 2026 monsoon began on 15 May, with south-western areas already registering up to 1,000mm locally and a further 300mm possible within the next week, leading the meteorological department to warn of 2–3-metre waves over the Andaman Sea. The Indian meteorological department projects total June–September rainfall at about 90% of the long-period average, partly due to expected El Niño conditions.