The bureau confirmed that the atmosphere is now responding to above-average sea surface temperatures—trade winds are weakening and pressure and cloud patterns align with El Niño—and forecasts point to a strong or very strong event. It warned climate change would amplify typical El Niño impacts on Australia, including extreme heat and bushfires, but cautioned that past patterns are less reliable predictors in a warming climate. The declaration comes five days after NOAA confirmed the event’s formation and assessed a 63% chance it ranks among the strongest since 1950.
The declaration comes five days after NOAA confirmed the event’s formation and assessed a 63% chance it ranks among the strongest since 1950.